This paper (2018) examines growth models of security breaches using multiple components. 

Abstract: Comparison of the performance of three growth models, Gompertz, Logistics, and Exponential , using security breaches data from the fifteenth annual report of the Computer Security Institute. Unlike other studies, multiple components (frequency of attacks and dollar loss value) are utilised to model the growth of security breaches thereby providing a balanced understanding of the undesirable phenomenon.

Conclusions: The findings indicate that multiple-dimensional approach to modeling security breach approach seems more rigorous than the single-dimension found in the literature. The two components seem to be different and each explains an aspect of security breach growth rate. Frequency of attacks provides a slightly better fit than dollar loss value in all three models.

Issues in Information Systems Volume 19, Issue 4, pp. 176-186, 2018

PANACEA Research perspectives: This paper is of general interest to PANACEA in its assessment of threat modelling approaches. 

Keywords: Security Breaches, Frequency of Attacks, Dollar Loss Value, Gompertz Model, Logistics Model, Exponential Model.

Lookout Watch entry date: 07/08/2019



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